Key Facts
- Conflict start
- 9 October 2016
- Rohingya refugees by Sep 2017
- ~500,000 fled to Bangladesh
- Killed (Oct 2016–Jun 2017)
- More than 1,000 Rohingya civilians
- Killed (25 Aug–8 Sep 2017)
- At least 1,000 (UN estimate)
- Arakan Army territorial control
- Over 90% of Rakhine State by Feb 2025
Strategic Narrative Overview
Myanmar's military conducted clearance operations from October 2016 to June 2017, killing over 1,000 Rohingya civilians. A second wave of violence erupted after ARSA attacked military outposts on 25 August 2017, driving some 389,000 Rohingyas from their homes within weeks. In January 2019 the Arakan Army opened a separate front against Burmese forces in northern Rakhine State, expanding and intensifying the conflict significantly.
01 / The Origins
The conflict in Rakhine State grew from long-standing ethnic and religious tensions between Myanmar's predominantly Buddhist state apparatus and the stateless Muslim Rohingya minority. ARSA insurgents launched attacks on Burmese border posts along the Bangladesh–Myanmar border on 9 October 2016, prompting large-scale military 'clearance operations' that the United Nations characterized as disproportionate violence against civilians, raising accusations of state-sponsored ethnic cleansing.
03 / The Outcome
The conflict remained ongoing as of 2025. By February 2025, the Arakan Army had seized over 90% of Rakhine State, including 14 of 17 townships, fundamentally shifting territorial control away from the central Burmese military. Hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees remained in Bangladesh, and Amnesty International documented crimes against humanity committed by Burmese military units throughout the conflict.
Belligerents & Mobilization Analysis
Side A
2 belligerents
Side B
2 belligerents
Kinetic Engagement Axis
Scroll horizontally to view full axis. Events plotted relatively.