Key Facts
- Campaign start date
- 2 December 2025
- STC dissolution date
- 9 January 2026
- Governorates seized by STC
- 6 (former South Yemen territory)
- Duration of STC advance
- ~7 days before counteroffensive
- Key city recaptured first
- Seiyun, 3 January 2026
Strategic Narrative Overview
Codenamed 'Operation Promising Future,' the STC offensive began on 2 December 2025 and advanced rapidly, capturing Seiyun, Tarim, and most of the six governorates of former South Yemen within days. The operation expanded into Al-Mahrah and adjacent regions. On 30 December, Saudi airstrikes hit the STC-held port of Mukalla, targeting a suspected UAE arms shipment. The Yemeni government expelled UAE forces and declared a state of emergency, while the UAE announced a voluntary withdrawal.
01 / The Origins
Within the broader Yemeni civil war, the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council had long pursued secession for former South Yemen. Backed by Abu Dhabi and nominally part of the anti-Houthi coalition, the STC had maintained an uneasy coexistence with the Saudi-backed internationally recognized government. In December 2025, the STC broke this stalemate by launching a large-scale offensive into Hadhramaut Governorate, territory controlled by the Yemeni government, signaling a direct rupture between the two coalition partners.
03 / The Outcome
On 2 January 2026, Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a counteroffensive, swiftly recapturing Seiyun on 3 January and Mukalla on 4 January. By 7 January, government forces entered Aden as STC resistance collapsed. STC leader Aidarus al-Zoubaidi was removed from the Yemeni Presidential Council, charged with treason, and reportedly fled to the UAE. On 9 January 2026, the STC announced its dissolution, ending the secessionist movement after its rapid territorial defeat.
Belligerents & Mobilization Analysis
Side A
2 belligerents
Aidarus al-Zoubaidi.
Side B
2 belligerents
Kinetic Engagement Axis
Scroll horizontally to view full axis. Events plotted relatively.