Key Facts
- Start year
- 2017
- Status
- Ongoing
- Primary insurgent group
- Ansar al-Sunna (local al-Shabaab)
- IS affiliate active since
- Mid-2018 (ISCAP)
- Attack pace
- Nearly doubled in first half of 2020 vs all of 2019
Strategic Narrative Overview
From its outbreak, the insurgency targeted civilians as its primary victims, with militants conducting raids, killings, and abductions. By mid-2018, the Islamic State's Central Africa Province (ISCAP) allegedly became active in the region, claiming its first attack on Mozambican security forces in June 2019. The conflict intensified sharply through 2020, with the number of attacks in the first half of that year nearly equaling the total for all of 2019, straining government forces.
01 / The Origins
The insurgency emerged in Cabo Delgado Province in 2017, driven by Ansar al-Sunna, a homegrown Islamist faction seeking to establish an Islamic state in the region. The group drew membership primarily from local Mozambicans in districts such as Mocimboa da Praia, Palma, and Macomia, with some foreign nationals from Tanzania and Somalia. Underlying grievances including poverty, marginalization, and religious radicalization provided fertile ground for militant recruitment.
03 / The Outcome
As of the available source, the conflict remains unresolved with no ceasefire or peace agreement reached. Mozambican security forces continue to combat both Ansar al-Sunna and ISCAP-linked militants. Bandits have additionally exploited the instability to conduct raids. The humanitarian situation has worsened significantly, with mass civilian displacement, and the insurgency continues to pose a threat to regional stability and infrastructure development in Cabo Delgado.
Belligerents & Mobilization Analysis
Side A
2 belligerents
Side B
1 belligerent