Key Facts
- Start date
- December 2025
- Status
- Ongoing
- SSPDF operation launched
- Operation Enduring Peace, 25 January 2026
- Primary region
- Jonglei State, South Sudan
- Prior peace agreement
- 2020 power-sharing agreement ending civil war
Strategic Narrative Overview
The SPLA-IO offensive began in late December 2025, targeting government positions across Jonglei State. The fighting intensified into 2026, prompting the South Sudan People's Defence Forces to formally respond on 25 January 2026 with the launch of Operation Enduring Peace, aimed at retaking territory seized by SPLA-IO forces. The clashes have raised alarm among international observers and regional actors about a potential collapse of the fragile peace framework.
01 / The Origins
The clashes stem from the imprisonment and treason trial of SPLA-IO leader Riek Machar following the 2025 Nasir clashes. In response, the SPLA-IO launched an offensive in late December 2025 to seize government strongholds in Jonglei State, a predominantly Nuer region. The conflict reflects unresolved tensions underlying the 2020 power-sharing agreement that ended South Sudan's devastating civil war and broader instability linked to the ongoing civil war in neighbouring Sudan.
03 / The Outcome
As of the available reporting, the conflict remains ongoing with no ceasefire or negotiated settlement concluded. President Kiir's government has publicly asserted that South Sudan will not return to full civil war, but the situation remains volatile. The fighting has revived fears of a broader relapse into civil conflict and potential entanglement in the Sudanese civil war across the border, leaving the peace process under severe strain.
Belligerents & Mobilization Analysis
Side A
1 belligerent
Riek Machar.
Side B
1 belligerent