Key Facts
- Start of diplomatic involvement
- 2011, following Assad's crackdown on protests
- First direct military operation
- Operation Euphrates Shield, 24 August 2016
- Territorial control gained
- Northern Syria occupied since August 2016
- Proxy forces outcome
- Assad regime toppled in Damascus, December 2024
- Primary initial target
- Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)
Strategic Narrative Overview
Turkey escalated from diplomacy to military action after Syrian forces downed a Turkish jet in June 2012 and border clashes erupted in October 2012. Direct intervention began with Operation Euphrates Shield in August 2016, followed by further operations in 2017–2020 and 2022 targeting Kurdish forces and ISIL. Turkey financed the Syrian National Coalition and helped establish the Syrian National Army as its principal proxy force.
01 / The Origins
After a decade of relatively stable relations with Syria, Turkey condemned President Bashar al-Assad's violent suppression of protests in 2011. Turkish intelligence began training Syrian Army defectors on Turkish soil, facilitating the formation of the Free Syrian Army in July 2011. Turkey's goals included limiting refugee flows, countering Kurdish militant expansion, and removing Assad, placing Ankara in opposition to Damascus from the war's outset.
03 / The Outcome
In December 2024, Turkish-backed proxy forces participated in the broader Syrian rebel offensive that toppled Assad's government in Damascus, with U.S. support. Turkey emerged as the most influential external party in post-Assad Syria. Northern Syria remained under Turkish military occupation, and Turkey's sponsored opposition factions gained a dominant role in shaping Syria's post-war political landscape.
Belligerents & Mobilization Analysis
Side A
2 belligerents
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Hulusi Akar.
Side B
3 belligerents
Bashar al-Assad.
Kinetic Engagement Axis
Scroll horizontally to view full axis. Events plotted relatively.