Prelude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine — Russian preparation for the invasion since March 2021
Russia's 2021 military build-up around Ukraine, the largest since 2014, directly preceded and precipitated the full-scale invasion of February 2022.
Key Facts
- First build-up start
- March–April 2021
- Second build-up start
- October 2021
- Troops massed by December 2021
- Over 100,000 soldiers
- Russia recognised breakaway regions
- 21 February 2022
- Full-scale invasion launched
- 24 February 2022
- Russian draft treaties issued
- December 2021
By the Numbers
Location
Cause → Event → Consequence
Rooted in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War since 2014, Russia sought to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and to advance its project Novorossiya, aiming to annex Ukrainian regions beyond Crimea. Intercepted communications revealed plans to foment unrest and engineer referendums in Donbas, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia, mirroring the 2014 Crimean annexation playbook.
Beginning in March 2021, Russian forces massed troops, armour, and heavy weaponry near Ukraine's borders and in Crimea in two major build-ups. By December 2021, over 100,000 troops encircled Ukraine on three sides, including positions in Belarus and Crimea. In December 2021, Russia issued draft security treaties demanding NATO exclude Ukraine and withdraw forces from Eastern Europe, which NATO rejected.
On 21 February 2022, Russia recognised the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics as independent states and deployed troops to Donbas. Putin declared the Minsk agreements invalid, and on 24 February 2022 launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, triggering sweeping Western sanctions and the most severe European security crisis since the Cold War.
Belligerents & Mobilization Analysis
Side A
1 belligerent
Vladimir Putin.
Side B
1 belligerent