Key Facts
- Conflict start
- March 2022 (ongoing)
- RDF troops estimated in DRC
- 3,000–4,000 (as of April 2024)
- M23 combatants estimated
- ~3,000
- Goma captured
- 30 January 2025
- Bukavu captured
- 16 February 2025
Strategic Narrative Overview
M23 overran Bunagana in mid-2022 and Kitchanga in January 2023. The EAC deployed a regional force, later supplemented by SADC troops, but M23 continued advancing. By March 2024 rebels pushed into Rutshuru Territory and Lubero Territory. In January–February 2025, M23 captured Goma and Bukavu, the capitals of North and South Kivu, marking the conflict's most dramatic territorial gains and prompting M23 to declare intentions to march on Kinshasa.
01 / The Origins
The M23 campaign grew from long-standing tensions in eastern DRC over ethnic Banyamulenge grievances, the presence of the FDLR, and competition for mineral resources. Rwanda, accused by the UN of backing M23, claimed security threats from FDLR-FARDC cooperation, while analysts and UN experts identified economic interests in Kivu's minerals as a primary driver. Uganda's concurrent deployment against the ADF further complicated regional dynamics.
03 / The Outcome
The conflict remained ongoing as of mid-2025. A Declaration of Principles was signed in Doha on 19 July, pledging dialogue and respect for Congolese sovereignty, though fighting had not conclusively ended. M23 held major urban centers in eastern DRC, Rwandan military presence was documented by UN experts, and diplomatic efforts led by Angola had repeatedly stalled, leaving the humanitarian and political situation unresolved.
Belligerents & Mobilization Analysis
Side A
2 belligerents
Paul Kagame.
Side B
4 belligerents
Félix Tshisekedi.
Kinetic Engagement Axis
Scroll horizontally to view full axis. Events plotted relatively.