Key Facts
- Launch date
- 27 October 2023
- Junta positions captured
- Over 220 by 28 November 2023
- Primary theater
- Northern Shan State, Myanmar-China border
- Alliance members
- 3 (AA, MNDAA, TNLA)
- Ceasefire attempts
- 2 (December 2023, January 2024); both collapsed
Strategic Narrative Overview
Launched on 27 October 2023, the offensive struck multiple targets simultaneously in northern Shan State. Alliance forces captured the strategically critical Kokang Self-Administered Zone after victory at the Battle of Laukkai and seized over 220 junta positions within a month. The offensive inspired parallel rebel actions in Rakhine State, Kayah State, Sagaing Region, and Chin State. Two China-brokered ceasefires — in December 2023 and January 2024 — both collapsed as fighting resumed.
01 / The Origins
Following Myanmar's February 2021 military coup, ethnic armed organisations and the civilian resistance coalesced in opposition to the Tatmadaw junta. The Three Brotherhood Alliance — comprising the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Ta'ang National Liberation Army — coordinated with the National Unity Government's People's Defense Force to plan a major offensive, exploiting the junta's overextension and low morale along the Chinese border in northern Shan State.
03 / The Outcome
The operation remains ongoing. The junta, unable to mount effective counteroffensives, has resorted to indiscriminate airstrikes and shelling. The Brotherhood Alliance holds significant territorial gains including the Kokang zone. No formal peace agreement has been reached, and rebel forces across Myanmar continue offensive operations, deepening the junta's political and military crisis.
Belligerents & Mobilization Analysis
Side A
2 belligerents
Side B
2 belligerents
Kinetic Engagement Axis
Scroll horizontally to view full axis. Events plotted relatively.