Key Facts
- Civilian deaths
- 395–510 reported killed
- Displaced persons
- ~300,000 Kurdish civilians
- City captured
- Afrin city, 18 March 2018
- Arrests for dissent
- 800+ social media users; ~100 politicians/journalists
- Operation codename
- Operation Olive Branch (Zeytin Dalı Harekâtı)
Strategic Narrative Overview
Turkish Armed Forces, supported by Syrian National Army militias, launched a combined air, artillery, and ground campaign into Afrin District. After weeks of fighting against YPG defenders, SNA Arab and Turkmen units entered Afrin city on 18 March 2018, effectively ending the conventional phase. Turkish forces subsequently halted their advance short of Manbij, despite earlier statements by Erdoğan indicating an intent to push further east.
01 / The Origins
Turkey viewed the Kurdish YPG, which controlled the Afrin District of northwest Syria, as a terrorist organisation linked to the PKK. The YPG formed the core of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, creating friction between NATO allies. Ankara considered the YPG's entrenchment along its southern border an intolerable security threat, prompting President Erdoğan to order a cross-border military operation into Afrin in January 2018.
03 / The Outcome
Following the capture of Afrin, Turkish forces and allied SNA militias implemented a resettlement policy, relocating displaced persons from Eastern Ghouta into homes vacated by Kurds. Widespread looting and seizure of Kurdish-owned property was documented. An estimated 300,000 Kurds were displaced, and the region remained under Turkish and SNA control. The operation drew international criticism over alleged war crimes and demographic change.
Belligerents & Mobilization Analysis
Side A
2 belligerents
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Side B
1 belligerent
Kinetic Engagement Axis
Scroll horizontally to view full axis. Events plotted relatively.