Key Facts
- Crisis start
- July 2021
- Peak crossing attempts
- October 2021
- Migrant deaths (winter 2021)
- At least 20
- EU states declaring emergency
- Poland, Lithuania, Latvia
- EU govts supporting physical barrier
- 12
Strategic Narrative Overview
From August 2021, tens of thousands of unauthorized border crossing attempts were recorded at the borders of Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia, peaking in October. Belarusian authorities provided migrants with wire cutters and crossing instructions while blocking those who failed from returning. Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia declared states of emergency. The EU deployed officers and equipment to Lithuania, but refused to fund border barriers, leading Poland and Lithuania to build their own walls independently.
01 / The Origins
Following the disputed 2020 Belarusian presidential election and subsequent mass protests, relations between Belarus and the European Union deteriorated sharply. In July 2021, President Alexander Lukashenko threatened to flood the EU with migrants. Belarusian authorities and state-linked travel agencies began advertising tours to Belarus to migrants from the Middle East and North Africa, falsely promising easy onward entry into the EU, in what the EU and independent observers characterized as deliberate hybrid warfare.
03 / The Outcome
Crossing attempts fell sharply after late 2021 but never returned to pre-crisis levels. At least 20 migrants died during the harsh winter. Human Rights Watch condemned Belarus for mass exploitation of migrants and border guard violence. EU member states faced criticism from human rights groups over pushbacks and denial of asylum claims. Border numbers began rising again in spring 2024, though remaining well below the 2021 peak, leaving the crisis unresolved and ongoing.
Belligerents & Mobilization Analysis
Side A
1 belligerent
Alexander Lukashenko.
Side B
1 belligerent